Closing in Paris: another tense session

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( — Fourth consecutive session of decline on the Parisian market. The CAC40 begins the week with a decline of -0.45%, to 5,840 points in a context of renewed Russian-Ukrainian tensions and economic doubts.

The Banque de France slightly lowered its growth forecast for the third quarter. The institution now forecasts growth of +0.25% in the 3rd quarter, after +0.5% in the 2nd quarter. “In an economic environment marked by the energy crisis and the difficulties of supply and recruitment, the activity continues to resist overall, but the industry is more affected than the other sectors”, indicates the Banque de France.

In addition, according to the monthly survey by the Sentix Institute, investor sentiment in the euro zone fell for the third consecutive month in October. It is at its lowest level since May 2020. The confidence index fell to -38.3 points, after -31.8 points in September, below the expectations of analysts who had forecast -34.7 points.

Beyond these signs of a slowdown in the French economy and European tensions, market participants remain tense in Paris by the monthly report on American employment, published on Friday. It was marked by a moderate decrease in job creation, a fall in the unemployment rate and a 5% increase in wages over one year. These statistics disappointed investors who were hoping for signs of deterioration in economic conditions prompting the Fed to slow the rate hike. A further rise of three-quarters of a point in early November is now considered nearly 90% likely according to the FedWatch barometer.
Today, bond markets, banks, federal offices remain closed due to Indigenous Peoples Day in the United States.
Stock markets remain open, but in a bad direction. At 6 p.m., the S&P 500 yielded -0.69% to 3,614 pts. The Dow Jones drops -0.29% to 29,212 pts. The Nasdaq’s decline is more pronounced, at -1.07% for 10,538 pts. The evolution of consumer prices, eagerly awaited for Thursday, will be scrutinized by investors.

The barrel of WTI crude fell -0.90%, but remained high at $92.27. Brent fell -1.27% to $97.2.

The ounce of gold drops -1.62% to $1,667. Bitcoin sinks below $20,000, with another -1.5% decline at $19,283.

The euro is again showing weakness, falling -0.37% to 0.9702…

Rising values

* inventive (+37.45% to 6.46 euros). The ADS listed on Wall Street soared 70% on Friday to $7.05. The title has been highly sought after in recent days, without the rise being based on any fundamental news. The last notorious information dates back to September 22, when Sino Biopharm signed a license and collaboration agreement to develop and market lanifibranor in China.

* Flo Group (+67.74% to 20.8 euros). On its resumption of quotation, the catering group is approaching the price of the OPR. The group took note of the agreement relating to the acquisition of blocks representing approximately 8.87% of the capital of Groupe Flo by Groupe Bertrand, its controlling shareholder and of the announcement of its intention to file a draft offer public withdrawal followed by a mandatory withdrawal on Groupe Flo at a price of 21 euros per share.

* Renault (+2.41% to 31.42 euros). The Paris market is reacting to the latest rumors regarding car manufacturer Renault and its partner Nissan Motor, which confirm that they are currently engaged in discussions of confidence around several initiatives as part of an ongoing effort to strengthen cooperation and the future of the Alliance. Discussions include: agreement on a set of common strategic initiatives on markets, products and technologies; Nissan’s intention to invest in the new Renault EV entity which will support Renault’s Renaulution strategy and be one of the strategic milestones of Nissan Ambition 2030; the companies continue to make structural improvements to ensure the sustainability of the Alliance’s operations and governance.
On Sunday, the WSJ reported that Japanese automaker Nissan was pressuring its partner Renault to reduce its current 43% stake in Nissan. Nissan would like a reorganization of the alliance set up under the era of Carlos Ghosn.

* vinci (+ 2.29% to 83.04 euros). Jefferies started the call at ‘Buy’ on the record with a target price of 105 euros.

* Eiffage (+0.22% to 81.3 euros). Jefferies begins the follow-up of the file with a recommendation to “Keep”.

* Valneva (+1.6% to 6.07 euros). The Saint-Herblain company, near Nantes, said it would make presentations on its single-shot chikungunya vaccine candidate during Q4 at several leading scientific conferences. In August, Valneva began submitting the marketing authorization application to the US health authority for its single-shot chikungunya vaccine candidate in people aged 18 and over. This submission follows positive final results for the pivotal Phase 3 trial announced last March and for the clinical batch homogeneity trial announced in May.

* Orange (+0.84% ​​to 9.28 euros). The operator benefits from the support of Oddo BHF which reiterated its opinion of ‘outperforming’ on the file despite a target price reduced from 13.3 to 12 euros. The analyst expects third quarter results to show very similar trends to the previous quarter in terms of EBITDAaL growth (+0.7% over 12 months), despite a slight improvement in terms of income.

Falling values

* Casino Guichard-Perrachon (-3.10% to 8.125 euros). The distribution group does not end the session in the worst possible way, since it fell to a low of 7.32 euros in the morning. Casino drags down its parent company rally (-10.63% to 2.27 euros). The pressure is still mounted on the file which hit a historic low after S&P Global Ratings downgraded its long-term credit rating from ‘B’ to ‘CCC+’. The agency anticipates a more difficult operating environment for retailers in France in a more degraded macroeconomic context. “This, coupled with the deterioration of the financial markets, will increase the pressure on the group’s liquidity, its ability to sell assets and refinance its liabilities”. She believes that the firm “will have less than adequate liquidity, with large debt maturities over the next 15 months and limited room to maneuver”.

* Aures Technologies fell further by 8.67%, to 8.22 euros, after already dropping 23.89% last week.

* Pernod Ricard (-3.44% to 176.65 euros). The Reuters agency indicated on Friday that the Indian administration is claiming the equivalent of 250 million euros from the local subsidiary of Pernod Ricard for having undervalued the value of imports of concentrates for several years in order to limit the amount of fees to be paid.

* TotalEnergies (-2.09% to 51.5 euros). In the context of a strike at its refineries and fear of a spill over supply difficulties in French stations, the oil group called for everyone’s responsibility, so that the company can ensure in the the best conditions for supplying the French. Subject to the end of the blocking of deposits and the agreement of all the social partners, TotalEnergie has proposed to anticipate in October the ‘Mandatory annual negotiation’, which was scheduled for November.
Only, the CGT intends to maintain the pressure in the refineries and fuel depots of TotalEnergies and Esso, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil. The tone rises between the two parties who seem to want to camp on their positions.
The CGT having indicated its intention to continue the strike, in this afternoon of Monday, TotalEnergies made a point of carrying out a new point of situation… In response to the accusations of “blackmail of the CGT, the only union to continue the blockades in France”, TotalEnergies insisted on recalling “its constructive and open state of mind in its approach to future wage negotiations” as well as “its desire to achieve fair compensation for the employees concerned”. The oil group recalls that its employees benefited in 2022 from an average increase of +3.5% in return for the results of the year 2021 while inflation stood at 2.8%. TotalEnergies also recalls the average remuneration of 5,000 euros gross per month (including Profit-sharing) of the operators of its refineries in France.
TotalEnergie indicated in the afternoon its desire that its employees be “priority in the sharing of value and thus receive the fair reward for their efforts on their pay slip before the end of the year”. Also, given its engaging position ahead of the discussions, the management of TotalEnergies considers that there is no no reason to maintain blockages. His position is “that it is time to give way to institutional negotiation in a peaceful climate, as is the custom in the Company”.

* LVMH (-1.25% to 610.5 euros). Part of the Sephora stores reopened today in Russia under the name Ile de Beauté, after a break in activity of several months following the war in Ukraine. Remember that Ile de Beauté is a Russian chain bought in 2016 by Sephora, owned by the LVMH group. Sephora, which owned 88 stores in Russia and employed 1,200 people, announced in July an agreement to sell 100% of the Russian subsidiary’s shares following the war in Ukraine.

* Hermes International (-1.3% to 1,248.5 euros). The title fell, despite the broker JP Morgan, which upgraded the file from 1,250 to 1,350 euros, while remaining ‘neutral’. “The highly integrated artisanal model, the balanced distribution network, the creativity of the collections and the loyalty of the clientele allow us to approach the future with confidence” explained the management on the occasion of the publication of the group’s half-year accounts. luxury goods, while emphasizing: “In the medium term, despite the economic, geopolitical and monetary uncertainties in the world, the group confirms an ambitious objective of revenue growth at constant exchange rates… Thanks to its business model unique, Hermès is pursuing its long-term development strategy based on creativity, mastery of know-how and original communication”. The Hermès group’s Q3 accounts are expected on October 20.

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Closing in Paris: another tense session

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