Legislative: Macronie in trouble, Emmanuel Macron in difficulty

Sunday evening, at 8 p.m., on the TF1 set, one only had to see the face of Gabriel Attal, a very young Minister of Public Accounts, to understand the embarrassment of Macronie following the results of the first round of legislative. On the first channel of France, the left-wing coalition, the NUPES is announced as coming first in the first round of the legislative elections. Several former ministers, figures of the first five-year term, such as Jean-Michel Blanquer or Emmanuelle Wargon, are eliminated now. In the hours that followed, a controversy set in to find out who, from NUPES or Ensemble, finally came first in the lead. The Ministry of the Interior ensures that it is Together to 22,000 votes. The world however assures the opposite, putting the NUPES in the lead at 26.1%, ahead of Together with 25.81%, explaining that they also take into account the left-wing candidates from the Overseas Territories supported by the NUPES. Quite a symbol.

Ministers in unfavorable tie

Together appears defeated, with a certain lack of momentum for the second round. Emmanuel Macron’s supporters are doing less well than in the 2017 legislative elections, and his score even fell seven weeks after his presidential victory. In fact, Ensemble, which nevertheless brings together the Modem and Horizons in addition to Renaissance, does less well than Emmanuel Macron himself on the evening of the second round of the presidential election. Never in the history of the Fifth Republic has a president had such a weak electoral base during the first round of the legislative elections which followed the presidential one. With 25.81% of the vote, the candidates of the presidential majority are supported by only one voter in four. Not to mention the explosion of abstention … especially among young people, which should have disadvantaged Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen.

Because in addition to the good score of the united left (although it will be difficult for it to obtain Matignon as Jean-Luc Mélenchon hoped, unless there is a start from the abstainers by the second round), the extreme right managed to maintain a high score (nearly 20%) even though its leader appeared to be erased during this campaign. It is also notable that the Republicans seem to have succeeded in saving their group in the National Assembly. Among the opponents of Emmanuel Macron, only Éric Zemmour cannot get elected (he is already eliminated) or register his movement in the territories. As a result, on the map of France, the number of constituencies where a Together candidate comes first appears particularly low. The warning for Emmanuel Macron is therefore serious. At this time, the president is not at all sure of obtaining an absolute majority. A real disavowal. If Mélenchon tries until the end to push his advantage (“I call on the French to surge next Sunday”), the most likely scenario is that of a relative majority for Together next Sunday, making the start of Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term particularly difficult. Without a start from the president’s support, France is on the verge of being ungovernable.

If the projections for the second round still give Ensemble a definite lead, the presidential movement finds itself in greater difficulty when we look in detail at the constituencies. Two ministers in office are particularly in difficulty, in particular Amélie de Montchalin in Essonne facing the former socialist Jérome Guedj (now NUPES), or Clément Beaune facing the lawyer Caroline Mécary (NUPES). Among the heavyweights of the macronie, the president of the National Assembly also finds himself heckled like the former minister Christophe Castaner. The NUPES is established in particular in the cities, three of its deputies are elected in the first round in Paris intra muros, the macronie loses its bastions of 2017.

A late “not a voice” must go to the far right

Like wildfire, the panic won behind the scenes the support of the president throughout the evening last night. No element of language was ready in front of the NUPES. Result, on the television sets, many macronists refused to call to beat the National Rally in the event of a duel with the NUPES. If Clément Beaune has clearly called for the Republican front, Jean-Michel Blanquer sings the air of “ni ni”, and affirms after the announcement of his defeat that “the far left is as big a danger as the far right”. For his part, Richard Ferrand, who had nevertheless explained that he had “common values ​​with Jean Luc Mélenchon” between the two presidential rounds, now explains that voters are now “faced with a choice of values”. A timid tweet from Elisabeth Borne arrives a few hours later claiming that “not a voice” should not go to the extreme right, but by quoting the “republican” Fabien Roussel, and not by evoking the leader of France Insoumise, relegated to the “extreme”.

This “everything except Mélenchon” could also play tricks on the macronie for the second round. We have seen in recent days that this type of anti-NUPES arguments based on fear, and waving the rag of disorder, had failed to mobilize the voters behind Together. On the contrary: this “everything except Mélenchon” could very well turn against its initiators if the “everything except Macron” that we experienced during the presidential election is reactivated among the voters. Mélenchon is counting on this distrust to turn the situation in his favor. It will be difficult, as the low participation in the first round prevented the multiplication of the triangular ones. We are even witnessing a battle within the battle with nearly a hundred duels in nearly a hundred constituencies between RN and NUPES.

We understand better why the macronists on the evening of the second round did not frankly call for a vote for the NUPES against the RN… Under these conditions, next Sunday, the other duels (NUPES/Ensemble or RN/Ensemble), could reserve other surprises as the electorate who votes is well divided into three blocks. This is the unknown factor of this second round: faced with the multiplication of these duels, what will the third part of the electorate do? Mobilize against Mélenchon or against Macron?

Marc Endeweld