To what to expect this Sunday, June 12, from 8 p.m.? According to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey, published by The world, this legislative election could well be one of the most uncertain that France has ever known. One thing is certain, however, the country remains indeed divided into three blocks. According to the study, three political families – the Nupes, the presidential majority and the extreme right – would collect more than 80% of the voting intentions. In time, it is the Together alliance (La République en Marche, MoDem and Horizons) which leads the race with 28% of voting intentions, just behind, at 27.5 points, almost on a par with the allies Of the president.
Four days before the first ballot, interest in these legislative elections is truly at its lowest. According to the study, 46% of respondents say they are ready – or some – to vote. In 2017, the participation rate was 48.7%, according to the final results of the Ministry of the Interior. More generally, seven out of ten French people say they are “interested” in the election, an indicator down from May. Both of these figures could be underestimated, with interest in a poll being heightened in the final hours of the campaign, just before voting begins.
On the projection side, the agreement sealed between La France insoumise, the Socialist Party and Europe Écologie-Les Verts seems to have seduced part of the electorate. Credited with 27.5% of the voting intentions, the left alliance also enjoys very high certainty of voting, at nearly 80%. The left would thus obtain between 160 and 200 deputies. At the same time, in this poll, the hypothesis that Nupes surpasses the presidential majority is possible because of the margins of uncertainty. Credited with 28 points in this survey, Together is far from being in a positive dynamic. According to the results, the presidential majority could collect between 275 and 315 elected officials in total. A projection which therefore suggests the possibility that the presidential alliance will not manage to obtain a majority in the Hemicycle.
��Together: 275 to 315 elected— mathieu gallard (@mathieugallard) June 8, 2022
��NUPES: 160 to 200 elected
��LR/UDI/DVD: 30 to 55 elected
⚫️RN: 20 to 55 elected
��DVG (including Overseas): 8 to 18 elected
⚪️Various: 8 to 18 elected pic.twitter.com/5D5ALt29Yk
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At the lowest, will LR ally with the majority?
As for the extreme right, the National Rally would collect around 20% of the vote, according to this poll carried out for the evening daily. The party led by Jordan Bardella, at least until September, would thus manage to elect between 20 and 55 elected officials. For its part, Reconquest! is credited with 5.5% of voting intentions.
With 11% of voting intentions, 30 to 55 elected LRs could be elected at the end of the second round. If the Republicans should reach one of the lowest levels in their history, the results of the Republican right could well be scrutinized this Sunday. Indeed, if the parties of the presidential alliance fail to obtain a majority at the Palais-Bourbon, LR would probably be associated within a coalition. So far absent from the discussions, this possibility is far from being far-fetched according to the respondents. 38% of them believe that the current majority will have to deal with the right to lead the country after June 19.
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Conducted on 10,826 people, this survey was carried out between June 3 and 6, 2022. The margin of error is between 0.8 and 1.1 points. The representativeness of the sample was ensured by the quota method.
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Legislative: the majority and the Nupes neck and neck, according to a survey
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