Cardano (ADA) has become one of the biggest players when it comes to leadership in the crypto market, even now being the second largest smart contract platform in the industry. In terms of capitalization, only the Ethereum network remains ahead of it.
However, lately, Cardano has failed to finalize parts of its major projects on time. The market has been ruthless, and heavy criticism of the network’s competence continues to loom in some crypto communities.
To better understand what is happening in this ecosystem, Be[in]Crypto spoke with Cardano Foundation Global Ambassador Marcos Vinicus this during Bitconf 2022. So, will ADA crypto price hit $3 in 2022?
Be[In]Crypto (BiC): At the start of 2021, the altcoin grew by 600%. The Cardano network roadmap includes five distinct stages, but what happens with two of the promised five stages?
Marcos Vinicius : These five stages are the five phases of Cardano: Byron, Shelley, Goguen, Basho and Voltaire, each having a specific topic.
Byron was fully finalized in July 2020. Since then, the project has therefore been working on the other four phases in parallel. Even the governance, in August 2020, launched its first ballot; it is therefore a governance that already works on the chain.
We work in cycles and interactions, which is a philosophy that has been adopted to evolve the software. This is also one of the reasons why the project takes time, because it performs several interactions until it is perfect.
Now, about his 600% valuation, yes, I agree. A very high expectation was generated by the deployment of smart contracts, which were supposed to be deployed on September 12, 2021, the date of the launch of Alonzo’s blue hard fork, which introduced the feature. And with this launch, it was expected that some protocols would announce that they would be online five days after Alonzo.
For example, Liquid had talked about how it would work after this fork, but some protocols had to delay their launch until the soon to be forked on June 30, 2022. Some were launched earlier and worked well. We can cite for example SundaeSwap on January 20, even if its launch was difficult; today it already works very well, because the protocol saw that there was a demand for scalability of these applications.
SundaeSwap had difficulties in January, and which were resolved more or less in February, with changes in the network parameters and within the protocol. Then, in March, MiniSwap appeared, another decentralized exchange (DEX) from Cardano. It is also very large and important, with a higher TVL today. There’s also WingRiders, which came out around April, more or less.
The ecosystem develops with the side chain, as well as for scalability, which corresponds to the Basho phase. And you have Hydra, a second-tier extensibility solution.
Bic: Will Cardano reach US$3 by the end of 2022?
Marcos Vinicius: I think it’s a bit difficult due to the market environment as Bitcoin has corrected to a level below $30,000 which eventually drags the altcoin market down with it.
“However, in 2021, for example, there were a lot of influencers, including one of the biggest in the crypto world on YouTube, predicting an ADA price of between $4 and $5, if phased rollouts were full.”
As we know that only DEX, marketplace and non-fungible tokens (NFT) segments are being rolled out and there are still more to come like loans, algorithmic stablecoins, synthetic assets and derivatives, I think that a reasonable price for ADA compared to $3.10 (which was an overstated prediction in September 2021) would be around $2.
Please note, this is not investment advice, but I consider a more reasonable price between $1.80 and $2, for what has already been deployed and what is to come. That said, this is a price that, with upcoming project launches, makes me visualize at least more chances for an interesting upside. A symmetry is quite attractive for those looking to diversify into risky assets.
BiC: So in a successful rollout scenario, can Cardano reach that maximum price or can it go above $3.10?
Marcos Vinicius: To get within that $2 range, Bitcoin would need to retrace to a level between $50,000 and $60,000. So, for the current range, I think a price between $1 and $1.20 would be a reasonable estimate for the current price of BTC, which is in the $28,000-$30,000 range. Today, ADA is in the range of $0.40 to $0.50.
BiC: Cardano is the second largest smart contract platform and is only surpassed in capitalization by the Ethereum network. What do you attribute this success and ease of use to? In 2021, the adoption of the Cardano wallet has won a significant number of new customers.
Marcos Vinicius: Much of the growth is due to the arrival of NFTs, because within Cardano, the NFT is not a smart contract but a native token like the ASA standard. It is therefore very similar to algorithms in this respect. There is a ledger on Cardano that registers ADAs, fungible tokens, and NFTs. The protocol therefore interprets and sees these tokens and ensures the same security for all.
ADA and other fungible tokens have the same status within the Cardano ledger, and they were launched on March 1, 2021. There were many collections of NFTs then. People would buy them and separate them into multiple wallets so they could buy multiple NFTs. Degens are a good example: they buy a lot of collectibles from the same source.
It was basically Cardano’s NFT summer cycle, combined with people’s expectations for the launch of smart contracts. This is due to an increase in wallet activity, especially staking. The positive expectations for the fork were really interesting and brought a function that was extremely expected for Cardano since 2017.
BiC: Let’s talk about scalability. Today, Cardano performs 250 transactions per second. The idea is to increase this figure to one million transactions per second. Is it really possible?
Marcos Vinicius: This is very interesting because on Cardano, the accounting register is not on the account system but on the UTXO system, which is a bit like bearer currency. Each transaction can actually represent 10 or 20, because there are 20 inputs and 20 outputs. We call this an entry/exit point. You have this benchmark, on engineering 290 transactions per second (TPS); this was an estimate for 2020.
“For 2022, Cardano has already implemented several block hikes to speed up the network, and one of these is aimed at meeting demand created by SundaySwap, which was its first DEX AMM.”
Cardano’s first DEX transaction took place on November 28, 2021, but SundaeSwap is an AMM DEX; it therefore constitutes a liquidity injection, which is much more demanding in terms of resources. This is why its launch was accompanied by some difficulty, but the protocol was being updated to increase this TPS.
And you also have the scalability of Hydra, a layer 2 protocol, which is a state channel. It is a smart contract where you can, for example, go to a coffee shop, open a status channel and your contract will be executed there. It will have a copy that we call homomorphic.
This estimate of one million transactions per second is quite optimistic, because no protocol, not even in the traditional market with a centralized server, can achieve one million transactions per second. However, I believe this will significantly increase Cardano’s scalability in the medium term, and should happen just before the June 30 fork.
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Cardano (ADA): Price Could Hit $1.20 By 2022, Says Global Ambassador – BeinCrypto
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