Mooners And Shakers: “The Final Descent” – Analysts Target November Crypto Bear Market Low

We are approaching a pivotal point in another pivotal week, in a pivotal month for Bitcoin and crypto. And yes, it’s all about the US Federal Reserve – which markets sincerely hope will pivot sometime before 2023.

It’s annoying that so much hinges on the words of a gray-haired geezer (Fed boss Jerome Powell) every month. Maybe next year we’ll start to see the Crypto Circus come back to town with some brand new exciting and thrilling acts.

But until then, it’s the Fed’s biggest macro show on Earth in 2022, and the calendar is pretty much booked until the end of the year.

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On Wednesday afternoon EST (it will be in the early hours of Thursday morning AEST), Ringmaster Powell will present the influential US central bank’s latest monetary policy statements from its two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

A 75 basis point rate hike is widely expected, and some say the most recent stocks and crypto have that “built-in” target. But this announcement will be a bit different from previous months, as Powell is also expected to outline the Fed’s overall plan for the rest of the year.

Markets will be watching his tone closely for any hint of easing the upside or maintaining a very strict course of ring-tightening until the Fed’s inflation control is over.

Right now it’s a nervous waiting game, but the markets will With a bit of luck get decent clarity in the next 48 hours, one way or another.

Bottom Pickup

In the meantime, is there hope for short-term thinkers? Probably not much, to be honest. Unless the Fed is showing a hint of scaling back its onslaught.

However, there is always longer-term hopium floating around in the market, which is pretty much a hopium gas planet, and US analyst Bob Loukas (19,000 Twitter followers can’t be wrong, right?) in a. If you can be patient until November.

Because that’s around when he predicts a bottom for Bitcoin and the crypto market. “The final descent,” he calls it.

Loukas is a big proponent of the importance of Bitcoin halving cycles to market health. And he’s not the only one – Finder’s Fred Schebesta reiterated the importance of this event for Stockhead in a recent conversation.

Very basically, if you didn’t know, bitcoin halvings are what happens when the rate of new bitcoins coming into circulation is halved. It’s built into the protocol and it happens about every four years. For Bitcoin fans, this is a beautiful thing and historically precipitates the start (though not necessarily immediately) of an extremely bullish crypto cycle.

Popular (we think) pseudonymous European crypto analyst Rekt Capital also thinks along the same lines…

Bottom line: let the Fed do its job, stay patient, keep reading Stockhead and Coinhead for spurts of market positivity here and there and the odd potentially strong narrative…and just riding out the storm(s)?

Just a thought. You might have a better plan than that. (If you do, let us know.)

Let’s take a look at the daily price action…

Overview of the top 10

With the overall crypto market capitalization at US$985 billion and up around 1.4% since yesterday, here is the current state of affairs among the top 10 tokens – according to CoinGecko.

Screen Shot 2022 09 20 at 10.30.07 am scaled

It’s been pretty bad for Bitcoin and, in particular, Post-Merge Ethereum over the past day.

That said, these two top crypto dogs (no, nothing to do with you, DOGE) managed to bounce back overnight. BTC fell to a daily low of around US$18,450, but somehow found just over US$1,000 at the bottom of the couch.

While ETH has come out of the US$1,290 doldrums and is at least changing hands around $80 higher than that, at the time of writing.

Highs and lows: 11–100

Sweeping a market cap range of around US$7.7 billion to around US$409 million across the rest of the top 100, find some of the biggest 24-hour winners and losers as of press time. (Stats accurate at time of publication, based on data from CoinGecko.com.)

DAILY PUMPS

Helium (HNT), (market cap: $595 million) +15%

ApeCoin (APE), (mc: $1.83 billion) +14%

Algorand (ALGO), (mc: USD 2.2 billion) +11%

Chiliz (CHZ), (mc: USD 1.35 billion) +8%

Celsius (CEL), (mc: USD 642 million) +7%

ARE WE DAILY

Evmos (EVMOS), (market cap: $801 million) -12%

Chain link (LINK), (mc: 3.4 billion USD) -5%

Ravencoin (LTC), (mc: $475 million) -4%

Chain (XCN), (mc: $1.34m) -3%

BitDAO (BIT), (mc: USD 520 million) -2%

Around the blocks: “a scam rally”?

A selection of chance and relevance that marked us during our morning trips through the Crypto Twitterverse…

Hmm, we just saw this, from Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a US-registered investment adviser (RIA). It’s another view of what strength arrive after Jerome Powell speaks this week.

It actually calls for a “heartbreaking rally” based in part on a potential “punch for short-term Treasury yields” and other factors involving volatility tracking.

Well, maybe it’s one for the hopium crack pipe, but something else to consider.

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Mooners And Shakers: “The Final Descent” – Analysts Target November Crypto Bear Market Low


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