- XRP price is nearing the end of a more than four-year-old uptrend.
- A breakout of this pattern could push Ripple to $3 and above.
- A daily candlestick close below $0.59 will invalidate the bullish thesis of the discount token.
XRP price is showing an extremely optimistic setup that foresees a retest of its all-time high and a double-digit target. The on-chain measurements show that the whales have been accumulating Ripple, adding credence to the thesis.
The XRP price and its insane valuation
XRP price is forming a bullish pattern known as a cup-and-handle. As the name suggests, there are two parts to the pattern: the cut – a “rounded” bowl-shaped price action section – and the handle – a smaller subsequent decline or consolidation.
A breakout of the handle’s trading range confirms the pattern and signals a continuation of the previous ascent. The lens for this setup is achieved by measuring the distance from the right top of the cup to the bottom of the cup.
If the distance is measured top to bottom, the 93% rise projects a target at $2.98. However, from a bottom-up approach, the 1,329% distance provides a target of $21.38. The latter is likely to be used in bull runs, where altcoins often yield multiple returns.
XRP price should produce a three-day candlestick above the trendline connecting the highs of the cut and low at around $1.57. This would indicate a breakout and trigger the predicted bullish rally.
XRP/USDT 3-day chart
While technical data predicts an extremely bullish outlook, on-chain volume for XRP price has been showing a steady decline since May 2021. Interestingly, volumes often need to drop significantly before a breakout and rise right after to pave the way for a breakout. volatile motion.
Currently, the volume is hovering around 1.8 billion, which is 20 times lower than its peak in May 2021 – a huge deterioration.
On-Chain XRP Volume
The 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) pattern also supports a massive rise in the XRP price. This on-chain measure is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors who have purchased XRP over the past year and currently hovers around -8.2%.
Since 2021, the 365-day MVRV has peaked between 15% and 82%. Most of these peaks coincide with a local high for the XRP price. Therefore, should history repeat itself, there is still huge upside potential for the price of XRP, which coincides with the outlook from a technical perspective.
XRP MVRV over 365 days
Perhaps the most exciting outlook for the price of XRP comes from the supply distribution based on the number of holders chart. The chart below tracks the number of investors who hold 100,000 or more XRP tokens.
These holders are classified into categories 100,000 to 1,000,000, 1,000,000 to 10,000,000 and 10,000,000.
The number of these holders has been in an upward trend since January 31, 2021 and shows no signs of slowing down even after the recent crash in January 2022. This spike in whales or even institutions only indicates one thing: these investors are bullish on XRP. price performance and they expect better things from the discount token.
XRP Supply Distribution
While things are looking up for XRP price, a flash Bitcoin price crash could easily translate into altcoins, including Ripple. In such a case, a daily candlestick closing below $0.59 will invalidate the bullish thesis for XRP price. This development is critical and could trigger a crash to $0.50 in a very bearish case.
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Why XRP price at $20 seems more plausible than $589 | Cryptocurrency
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